Mark Your Calendar: The United States of COW coming soon!

Yes California #Calexit

Mark your calendar for July 25.  If 585,407 or more Californians sign the Yes California petition by July 27, there will be a statewide vote in November which would establish an independence plebiscite on March 5, 2019.

How far behind can Oregon and Washington possibly be?  And why not form a new

United States of COW – California, Oregon and Washington?

The Yes California organization has enumerated their reasons for independence on their website: http://www.yescalifornia.org/.  Their points are quite compelling:

  1. PEACE AND SECURITY
  2. ELECTIONS AND GOVERNMENT
  3. TRADE AND REGULATION
  4. DEBT AND TAXES
  5. IMMIGRATION
  6. NATURAL RESOURCES
  7. THE ENVIRONMENT
  8. HEALTH AND MEDICINE
  9. EDUCATION

They state: Yes California is the nonviolent campaign to establish the country of California using any and all legal and constitutional means to do so. We advocate for peaceful secession from the United States by use of an independence referendum to establish a mandate, followed by a nationwide campaign to advocate in support of a constitutional exit from the Union.

As a management consulting firm, if California were to hire us to advise them on this endeavor, this would be the simplest engagement ever.  We are based in Atlanta.  Sherman did some pretty horrible things that leave an open scar to this day.  The census of 1860 put the US population at 31 million.  About 620,000 soldiers died in the Civil War.  Census.gov/popclock says we have 324,456,571 people as of this writing.  If an equivalent number of soldiers perish in the Second Civil War triggered by a Calexit, that translates to 6,397,641 lives.  Though you may wish a non-violent exit, guess what, that book is written and you will not like the ending.

Our advice: work within the system California, heed the words of our last president: “If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business – you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.  The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together.”

 

 

ABOUT VERTICAL

Vertical Capital Advisors is an Atlanta-area business advisory firm built on creating tangible value for our clients, serving clients in just about every industry.  Our clients are both capital growers and capital allocators.  How can Vertical help your firm maximize value?

Joe Briner
Managing Director
Vertical Capital Advisors LLC
briner@verticalcapitaladvisors.com
866-912-9543 ext 108

Jimmy Buffett sings “Ringling, Ringling, fading away.” Who’s next?

As we watched an episode of House Hunters International about the town of Gangi on the Italian island of Sicily, the song Ringling, Ringling from Jimmy Buffett’s 1974 album Living and Dying in ¾ Time kept playing in my head:

Ringling, Ringling, fading away, only 40 people living there today, the streets are dusty and the bank has been torn down, it’s just a dying little town… I wonder how many people will be there a year from today

Since 1970 the population of Gangi has shrunk from 17,000 to 8,000.  Gangi, too, is fading away.  The 1,100 year old town is selling homes for €1.  Gangi exists at the convergence of a falling birth rate and the human migration pattern from rural, agrarian economies to urban, centralized economies.  In fact, only 105 countries out of the 224 tracked in the CIA World Factbook[i] exceed the 2.1 “population replacement” birth rate required to maintain a population.  The global birth rate map is fascinating – take a look:

global birth rate

If your country is blue, it is shrinking.  In the short-run, the only thing that can change that fact is migration from one of the more brightly-colored countries on the map.  What this means for the established, shrinking western economies is we had better be prepared for a large influx of people who don’t look or talk like the majority of the current population to become our neighbors and, for the baby boomers, caregivers as we age.

In the Atlanta area where Vertical Capital Advisors is based, we are again experiencing a building boom.  At business gatherings the question is often asked where are all the people coming from to occupy all of these new homes and offices?  While it is true that our national economy is not growing through natural births, we do continue to see urbanization of the population as younger, more mobile people opt for jobs and homes in the urban-centric service economy where one can readily buy Chik-fil-A or Krispy Kreme donuts on the way to work.  And when people immigrate to the U.S., they too tend to live and work in the population centers.

Small, rural towns like Ringling and Gangi are likely to continue fading away throughout the developed world, even if countries adopt open immigration policies.

Gangi – one has to wonder how many people will be living there one year from today.

 

ABOUT VERTICAL

Vertical Capital Advisors is an Atlanta-area business advisory firm built on creating tangible value for our clients, serving clients in just about every industry.  Our clients are both capital growers and capital allocators.  How can Vertical help your firm maximize value?

Joe Briner
Managing Director
Vertical Capital Advisors LLC
briner@verticalcapitaladvisors.com
866-912-9543 ext 108

[i] Source: CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html