The New Normal

What will the banks do this time?
 Life Post-Brexit

Will we have to adjust to a “new normal” the way we did in 2008 and beyond?

By 2010 it was clear that the recession was not ending anytime soon.  We began to talk to clients and capital providers about the “new normal” in many industries.  The metrics had just simply changed.  Most industries have recovered and the industry benchmarks have returned to where they were pre-recession and many industries have entirely new metrics.

Fortunately there have been structural changes, especially in the banking system.  In fact, the eight largest “systemically important” banks had to specifically test for the impact of severe UK recession coupled with similar conditions in the Euro Zone and Japan and a less intense recession in Asia, and they all passed according to a Federal Reserve report.  Click here for a link to the Bloomberg article on the topic.

banks post brexit

And these banks had to draft their own obituaries – a detailed plan of what to do in the event the bank failed (now wouldn’t that just put you in a bright cheery mood if you had had to do that?).  Bankers had to get much more deliberate about how they manage their operations and they have to plan for extraordinary events in ways they never did before.  The most important factor at the end of the day is cash capital, or, in banking terms, liquidity – the ability to meet cash demands when they are made.  Probably not a bad idea for your company to do the same.  Plan to have enough cash to meet the needs of your business for up to two years without borrowing or selling assets.

Can you do it?

We may have seen a permanent shift in banking in the last several years.  U.S. banks have more regulations and are under more pressures than they ever have been.  They are forced to look more closely at everything they do.  There has been an explosion of growth in the shadow banking system – non-bank capital allocators like hedge funds – that are filling in the gaps left by the banks withdrawal from certain sectors.  It’s a different game with these operators.  Vertical Capital Advisors LLC is built to help you navigate your company through the new new normal in the capital markets.

How is the Brexit going to affect my business?

If you are like me, last Friday you were pondering, “I wonder how the Brexit is going to affect my business”.

man with cigar

So I went searching for hard facts and analysis from leading authorities.  I found a post by Matthew Bishop, an editor at The Economist, perhaps the leading authority on global economics.  After all, they invented the Big Mac Index (http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index) that compares the cost of a Big Mac in every currency simultaneously, enabling the entire world to instantly view the relative strength/weakness of every currency.

In case you missed Matthew’s treatise, here’s the link:https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uncool-britannia-how-britains-vote-brexit-hurt-your-business-bishop?trk=hp-feed-article-title-comment

And here is my post in response:

Don’t know that I agree with your police work there Matthew. We need facts.

Chaos – yes, definitely today, but give the markets ‘til Tuesday morning. When everyone realizes they weren’t hit in the drive-by, no bullet holes, it’s back to business. Remember, the vote was non-binding so Parliament must now do some dirty work and THEN a mandatory two year break-up process begins. The exit process was smartly designed to minimize collateral damage.

Likely and long period of uncertainty – hmmm, by Monday it won’t even be yesterday’s news. Donald, Hillary, or fill in the blank, will do something crazy by Sunday night then we will be on a fresh news cycle.

Intense stress – like the subprime mortgage stress? Probably less – significantly less.

We all feel bad that globalization took a hit but a subprime hit it was not. You hinted at the real villain lurking in the shadows – all the world economies are struggling to return to growth post-Great Recession, having been kept alive, limping along, supported by unprecedented printing of money. This massive monetary experiment is about to have its BIG reveal. The Brexit probably won’t even be a factor. It might be blamed as a “catalyst” but in reality the business world has already taken this in stride. Markets got hammered all the way back to last week’s starting values. London will still be the world’s financial center in ten years. The only difference will be the billions of pounds lawyers will make re-documenting everything they can get their hands on. British politics is always devolving into an ugly vicious battle over something. This at least gives MPs something material to argue about. Keep them off the streets and out of the pubs.

100 quid says it’s up from here

Brexit Frexit, Who’s the Nexit?

Brexit – done. Nexit?

Frexit, Swexit, Italexit, Czexit, Grexit, Finnleft?

A CNBC poll shows over half of respondents in Italy and France said their countries should hold a vote on exiting the European Union however less than half said they would actually vote for it:

EU Brexit

What does it mean for the U.S. anyway?

Very believable experts cover every point on the scale from no impact at all to complete financial and civil collapse. If your business is heavily dependent on international commerce, you will probably see short term impact in some way. For the average American, it will be life as usual.

Have a clever name for one of the EU country’s possible exit? Shoot me an email and we will get it in our follow-up blog on the Brexit.

The countries not yet mentioned are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.